Escalated Exchange of India
Shashank Bhandari
The recent turn of events in Southern Asia requires an in-depth deliberation, especially from the Indian perspective. There was a limited objective adhering to the principle that any terror attack from across the border (in terms of the operation, infrastructure, affiliation) shall get a befitting response from the Indian Armed Forces against those terror organizations wherever they are. However, this time around, the Indian Armed Forces did not cross any international or disputed boundaries. All the precision strikes took place from Indian soil and space, and the Pakistani people were bringing out the proof of their intensity and magnitude. It was not just any random location but a pinpoint coordinate where the terror infrastructure was bustling in the middle of the city. Thereafter, the world witnessed an unprecedented (however, expected) reaction in the form of incessant aerial attacks on India across the whole land border, ranging from Jammu & Kashmir to Rajasthan. The Indian government did not hesitate to climb up the escalation ladder, and it was apparent that any further action from Pakistani soil would be considered an act of aggression.
Simultaneously, there was a robust diplomatic machinery churning out the usual and the unusual processes to lobby around their actions. Two possible angles India might have worked upon. First, India is defending its action of destroying terror infrastructure across multiple locations in Pakistan. Indians received full solidarity and support in the unprovoked attack on the innocent tourists on its land, and it was a well-established thought in the minds of the people that India would respond to cross-border terror as it had on the previous two occasions (2016 and 2019). The last reported call of condolence was of the Qatari Emir before the news of the Indian attack on Pakistani-located terror camps – the significance of which is yet to be deciphered. Second, India, through its actions, makes it amply clear to its allies or the self-proclaimed stakeholders in the process of peace that they are ready to take this escalation bid of Pakistan to its logical end – a full-scale war. There was also the immediate visit of the Iranian foreign minister and then the Saudi foreign minister to India and Pakistan for immediate and effective resolution.
In climbing up this escalation ladder, there have been many learnings and outcomes for the world to witness and absorb. The situation, despite its fluidity, has a few sediments for the world to witness the shape it takes.
Paradigm with a tectonic shift
The Pakistanis and the world have realized that any attack of terror, like the USA and Israel, will give India a license to neutralize them. No matter what the jurisdiction. The US Seals unabashedly entered Abbottabad, Pakistan, killed Osama Bin Laden and left with his heirs. Never mind the two decades spent in Afghanistan dealing with Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Israel, over the last few months, has made it their mission to eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah honchos, even if they are lodging in the Iranian leadership’s complex.
In 2001, then Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee called the President of the United States, George W Bush, to console him on the loss of life in the September 11th attacks and stressed that India had long been a victim of terror. Two decades later, the Indian dispensation has concluded that there is no alternate remedy available, and they will only have to take assertive steps to address the issue of cross-border terrorism. Terrorism is an act of war against India, and it shall take any action that it deems fit in its “India’s War against Terror”. This is the new normal.
The three corners cornered
The period from 2004 to 2014 saw India relentlessly applying its diplomatic prowess through the dossier distribution post the 26/11 attacks. It succeeded in getting Pakistan enlisted in the FATF gray lists, and Interpol issued Red notices against certain terrorist commanders, which was not of any serious consequence. Despite the direct attribution, Hafiz Saeed was detained under house arrest in September 2009, and then the Lahore High Court quashed all the charges against him in October 2009. India had gained only sympathisers but never any allies that could further its cause of eliminating cross-border terrorism. Pakistan, by now, has established that the Terror economy is a standard way of life in its functioning, with minimal punitive action on the larger front.
India has shifted its latitude tectonically and changed gears to the point that the Pakistani government, its de facto regime (the military), and the terror outfits are all arrayed together in the same room. Not much defense is left when all three parties in the Pakistani scenario face a situation where each has a face to lose. The political government loses whatever little faith the electorate reposes in them. The military loses its credibility in securing the nation. The terror outfits, well, so much for being a terror outfit, got bombed in their backyard. Now, the Pakistani stakeholders will have to introspect their actions in the face of an impending Indian retaliation on their soil and space. Hopefully, they will all soon change, as the trust deficit amongst these power players will have direct viewership of the whole nation and the world.
These punitive measures that India has started deploying in the last decade may not have an everlasting impact, meaning thereby that whenever these terror outfits have gained sufficient courage and sponsorship from the official dispensation, they will not hesitate to relaunch cross-border terrorists in India. Everybody involved in the economy of terror shall now understand that Pakistan is not going to be a suitable destination for outsourcing its operations. India could hit them at any given point in time. At midnight, though.
Proportion and Calibrate
The world witnessed an unprecedented (however, expected) reaction of Pakistani aggression in the form of incessant aerial attacks on India across the whole land border, ranging from Jammu & Kashmir to Rajasthan. The Indian government did not hesitate to climb up the escalation ladder, and it was apparent that any further action from Pakistani soil was an unprovoked attack on India.
Pakistan launched anything between 400-500 projectiles that included but were not limited to UCAVs, drones, missiles, jets towards the Indian soil and space, apart from the aggravated shelling across various sectors of the LoC. The Indian response was twofold. Firstly, they shielded all of the Pakistani aerial attacks with a near-perfect success rate, aimed at military as well as civilian locations. Secondly, as part of India’s “proportionate and calibrated” response to the Pakistani escalation bid, the Indian armed forces attacked about 11 locations of strategic importance to the Pakistani military. Notwithstanding the losses incurred to the Pakistani radar system and other machinery, the bases that are attributed with the significance of holding its nukes and the F-16s were also hit. As reported, India lost five soldiers and about 20 civilians. In contrast, Pakistan lost about a hundred terrorists and fifty army personnel and scores of civilians, as stated by the Indian Armed Forces during their press briefing.
This limited period of combat tested the intensity and capability of not just the armed forces but also the weaponry and its success. There is only restricted information about the exact choice of weapons, platforms, and the machinery in play that both sides have disclosed and confirmed. This combat displayed what many defence trade fairs, national day parades, air shows, and military exercises could never do- the efficacy/reliability of its weapons. The world powers have built their supremacy in international politics and the business of arms from almost every weapon used in this escalated exchange.
The damage inflicted by the Indian military is still under assessment. Especially with the precision that the Indian side has successfully achieved its targets, be it the terror camps and then the 11 military airbases, has sent shockwaves across the spectrum of arms and defence. The clinical execution of India’s “proportionate and calibrated” response has reflected its ruthlessness and commitment to its fight against terror. The Indian military has reflected its dominance, and the world, the continent, and the sub-continent have taken the message loud and clear. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has outright stated that this is not the era of war and India, least of all, shall be interested in initiating a full-fledged war. This weekend’s events have made it apparent that it comes from a point of strength, not weakness.
Multifarious aspects need more time and light of the day to reach an appropriate conclusion, like the ceasefire, its arrival, departure, and permanence. In addition, how this Indian response trickles down the Pakistani frame is yet to be seen, with its nuclear threshold and the neighbourhood at large. The defence market seems to have a disruptor in India, and how well it captures the military dreams of the purchasing world at large is only anybody’s guess. There is more to unfold in this escalated exchange, requiring further deliberation.
(Shashank Bhandari is an advocate by profession)
