Bypoll Results: No Major Shift in Political Equations
Krishna Mohan Jha
The results of recently held by-elections for five assembly seats—two in Gujarat and one each in Kerala, Punjab, and West Bengal—have been declared. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won two of these seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Trinamool Congress (TMC), and the Congress each secured one seat. However, these outcomes are unlikely to bring about any major shift in the broader political landscape.
Among the four states, the ruling parties in Gujarat, Punjab, and West Bengal can be reasonably satisfied with the results. Kerala is the exception, where the Congress managed to snatch the Nilambur assembly seat from the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). This seat was previously held by an LDF-backed independent, who later joined the TMC following differences with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Notably, the Nilambur seat falls under the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency, which is represented by Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Consequently, the Congress made this by-election a prestige battle and secured a win through its candidate Aryadan Shaukat.
Gujarat: BJP and AAP Share One Seat Each
In Gujarat, the BJP retained the Kadi assembly seat, which it already held, with a convincing margin. Meanwhile, AAP scored a major victory in the Visavadar seat, where its candidate Gopal Italia defeated the BJP candidate by over 17,000 votes.
Punjab: AAP’s Victory Through Sanjeev Arora
In Punjab’s Ludhiana West constituency, AAP candidate and current Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora emerged victorious. Following his election to the state assembly, speculation arose over who would fill the now-vacant Rajya Sabha seat, with some suggesting former Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal as a possible nominee. However, Kejriwal dismissed these rumors, stating that the party’s Political Affairs Committee would decide on the matter.
West Bengal: TMC Retains Traditional Stronghold
In West Bengal’s Kaliaganj seat, TMC’s Alifa Ahmed won with a huge margin of over 50,000 votes, defeating BJP’s Ashish Ghosh. This seat was previously held by her late father, Naseeruddin Ahmed, whose demise necessitated the by-election.
Political Analysis: Status Quo Prevails
The results of these bypolls do not suggest any major electoral upheaval or shift in mandate. Voters in most of these states appear to have opted for continuity. Congress’s win in Kerala might be a cause for concern for the LDF, but elsewhere the status quo has largely been maintained. For AAP, the victories in Punjab and Gujarat could serve as a morale booster following its recent defeat in the Delhi assembly elections. Kejriwal even dubbed these bypolls as a “semi-final” for the 2027 assembly elections in these states.
While legislative elections in Kerala and West Bengal are due next year, Punjab and Gujarat will go to polls in 2027. Thus, these by-election results are unlikely to serve as a decisive indicator of future political trends.
No Significant Impact on Bihar
It would also be premature to suggest that these bypoll outcomes will influence the upcoming Bihar assembly elections scheduled for later this year. Bihar’s political dynamics are considerably different from those of the four states involved in these by-elections, and the results here are unlikely to sway voters in Bihar in any significant way.
(The author is a political analyst.)
