New Delhi/Kolkata: Early trends from the Assembly elections across five states have delivered a powerful political message, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appearing set for clear victories in West Bengal and Assam. Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu has thrown up the biggest surprise, with actor-turned-politician Vijay Joseph’s Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) emerging as a formidable challenger to the traditional Dravidian parties.

In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is maintaining a strong lead, while in Puducherry, the NR Congress-BJP alliance remains in a commanding position.

However, the sharpest focus remains on West Bengal, where early trend analysis suggests that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s intensive campaign may have played a decisive role in BJP’s remarkable performance.

Data indicates that in constituencies where the Prime Minister held rallies, roadshows, and public meetings, the BJP is currently leading on nearly 65 percent of the seats.

Strong Modi Effect Visible

Prime Minister Modi participated in a total of 29 election campaign events across the five poll-bound states.

Of these, 24 events were held exclusively in West Bengal, making it the state that received the highest level of direct campaign attention from the Prime Minister.

Since the election schedule was announced on March 15, Modi launched an aggressive campaign across Bengal, addressing rallies from Murshidabad to Kolkata and Barrackpore, seeking to build momentum for the BJP.

According to current trends, out of 259 Assembly seats located in areas where Modi campaigned, the BJP is leading in 171 seats.

This gives the party a strike rate of nearly 65 percent in PM Modi’s campaign zones.

Political analysts believe this could prove decisive in BJP’s bid to script history in West Bengal.

Campaign Across 19 Districts

Prime Minister Modi campaigned in 19 districts across West Bengal.

His first major rally was held in Kolkata on March 14, even before the formal election notification, while his final campaign event took place in Barrackpore on April 27.

In total, he addressed rallies and roadshows in 24 cities and regions.

While some districts saw a single campaign event, strategically sensitive districts were visited multiple times, in some cases as many as four times.

North 24 Parganas: BJP’s Biggest Focus Zone

North 24 Parganas emerged as the biggest focus area of Modi’s campaign.

The Prime Minister campaigned here four times, including:

• Public outreach in Panihati
• Vijay Sankalp Sabha in Dum Dum
• Rally at Thakurnagar in Bangaon
• Final public meeting in Barrackpore

The district has 33 Assembly seats.

2021 Result: BJP won only 5 seats
2026 Trends: BJP leading on 17 seats

This marks a dramatic jump for the saffron party.

Kolkata Witnesses a Major Shift

Kolkata, long considered a Trinamool Congress stronghold, appears to be witnessing an electoral shift.

Prime Minister Modi held:

• A mega roadshow in North Kolkata
• Visit to Thanthania Kalibari
• Roadshow from BK Pal Avenue to Khanna Crossing
• Rally in Bhabanipur and South Kolkata

Kolkata district has 11 Assembly seats.

2021 Result: TMC won all 11 seats
2026 Trends: BJP leading on 6 seats

Political observers see this as one of the most significant indicators of changing voter sentiment.

Massive BJP Gains in Hooghly

In Hooghly district, PM Modi held two major events:

• Rally in Arambagh
• Public meeting in Haripal

The district has 18 seats.

2021 Result: BJP won 4 seats
2026 Trends: BJP leading on 14 seats

This is being viewed as a major strategic success for the BJP.

Breach in TMC Fortress: South 24 Parganas

South 24 Parganas, historically one of TMC’s strongest bastions, also appears to be showing cracks.

Prime Minister Modi addressed rallies in:

• Mathurapur (April 23)
• Jadavpur (April 24)

The district has 31 Assembly seats.

2021 Result:

• TMC: 30 seats
• BJP: 0 seats

2026 Trends:

• BJP leading on 12 seats

If sustained, this would mark a historic breakthrough for the BJP.

Has the Modi Wave Changed Bengal’s Political Equation?

Political analysts believe BJP’s surge in Bengal is not merely the result of organisational strength, but also a reflection of Prime Minister Modi’s direct electoral intervention.

Massive crowds at his rallies, speeches centred on nationalism and development, and sharp attacks on the Mamata Banerjee government appear to have significantly shaped voter sentiment.

Experts suggest that if these trends hold through final counting, Bengal’s verdict could be seen as one of the most significant examples of the “Modi factor” influencing a state election.

One conclusion is becoming increasingly clear:
Wherever Prime Minister Modi campaigned, BJP’s electoral prospects strengthened considerably.

And that may well signal that West Bengal is on the verge of writing a new chapter in Indian political history.